Is Kazakhstan Ready to Develop the Caspian Transit Route Without Russian Involvement?

According to Sea News, the Consulate General of our country in Almaty, the capital of Kazakhstan, has prepared a report titled “Is Kazakhstan ready to develop the Caspian Transit Corridor without Russian participation?” In this report, Kazakhstan’s attempt to bypass Russia has been mentioned.

Kazakhstan intends to develop the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TMTM) by bypassing Russia. This route will be implemented through the Caspian Sea with the participation of China, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey. Sanctions imposed on Russia have given a new breath to the Middle Corridor.

Will Kazakhstan cope with the high volume of transportation flow from Europe? According to representatives of Russian logistics companies, the above route will not be practical without considering the northern neighbor. However, representatives of Chinese companies are ready to cooperate in this regard and currently prefer to transport their goods through designated maritime routes.

The twenty-sixth Kazakhstan International Exhibition “Transport and Logistics” began on October 4th. Foreign and domestic company representatives are scheduled to express their views on the development of the Trans-Caspian transport route.

Azar Mamadov, the director of Azerbaijan Logistics Company, said: Previously, a significant amount of cargo transportation from China and Europe passed through Russian territory, but after the start of the war in Ukraine, European companies showed interest in the Trans-Caspian route.

Due to the current situation in Russia and the sanctions imposed on it, the international Trans-Caspian transport route is now facing high demand. European companies collaborating with Central Asia are interested in this route. Requests for this route are even beyond imagination, as it is an alternative route from Europe to Central Asia.

He added: Azerbaijan is actively establishing contacts with Central Asia to increase transit routes.

Vasily Dimitriev, a representative of the Russian Port Logistics Company, clearly stated that the Trans-Caspian transit route without the participation of Russia would not be effective. The main reason is that the transit infrastructure via the Caspian Sea is very old and not designed for large cargo volumes.

He believes that Kazakhstan cannot completely eliminate the transportation of goods through Russia. The infrastructure of Georgia and Azerbaijan was built during the Soviet era. It is impossible to pass more than 20-30 thousand tons of cargo there daily. For example, the Webb-Rockwell transportation company uses at least four trains daily, carrying almost 1000 tons each, Dimitriev stated: This route without Russia will not be viable.

Furthermore, this system will remain unused even without China. Kazakhstan must cooperate with Russia, China, or both countries to make this system functional. Without collaboration with Azerbaijan and Georgia, which are much smaller than Kazakhstan, this system will not be efficient.

Kazakhstan is considering a new way to transport goods without going through Russia. This new route would pass through the Caspian Sea and involve China, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey. Kazakhstan sees the sanctions against Russia as an opportunity for this.

The big question is whether Kazakhstan can handle the high volume of goods coming from Europe. Some say it’s not practical without considering Russia, while others, especially Chinese companies, are interested in cooperating. Currently, maritime routes are preferred for transporting goods.

The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route faces challenges due to outdated infrastructure and low digitalization levels. Only 30% of roads are currently used, and ships that experienced congestion in 2022 won’t tolerate it anymore.

Investments of 6 billion euros over the next five years are needed to develop the route’s infrastructure and digitize processes. Kazakhstan is also developing the North-South transit route, which complements the Caspian route.

Kazakhstan is not abandoning Russian routes entirely but sees the Caspian route as a viable alternative. It has been operational for 10 years and is considered efficient, though it needs further growth and development. Recent economic growth shows increased demand for imports from Kazakhstan and Central Asia, but it cannot replace Russia’s routes entirely. So, the Caspian route serves as a complementary option.